Migration of Indians from one State to the

Emigrate: Leave one country to settle in another
Immigrate: Come as a permanent resident into the foreign country
Migrate: Move from one place (country, town, college, house ) to another

Past history
Migration of people from one country / region to another has been happening since dawn of human evolution. Humans have migrated across the continents in search of food, shelter, safety and hospitable weather.

In the recent past, added to the above are persecution of one kind of another, i.e., by rulers, religions, castes. War is yet another reason. Soldiers traveling wide and far and for long periods, at times, do not go back to their original regions but settle down in the conquered regions. For example, Mughals settling down in India.

Present position
While some of the above mentioned causes still persist, e.g., floods, famine, inflow/outflow of refugees, by far migration to another country/region in the present is largely happening in search of work. Urbanisation of cities/towns and establishment of large industrial plants are also an invitation for people to migrate. Increase in population without comparable increase in job opportunities in the place of birth, those migrated beckoning kith and kin from back home, to some extent wariness of living and working with strangers withering away, etc., are other factors. Brain drain on account of migration of people from one country to another, fear of local people at migrants taking away their jobs / job opportunities and the attendant agitations, stringent laws of some countries curtailing the number of people from other countries who could immigrate, etc., are some of the problem areas, which could be expected to exacerbate the development of large scale migration. To cite a few examples:
· North Indians ( particularly from Bihar ) migrating to Mumbai
· Oriyas now coming in large numbers to Kerala for manual labour
· USA & UK in recent times stipulating lower number of new migrants from India to those countries
· Restrictions announced by US Government on the inflow of female nurses to USA from other countries
· US Government more or less stipulating that American companies receiving financial help from Government cannot out-source jobs from outside

Exracts from the Book ‘ Imagining India ‘ by Nandan Nilekani:

“ In 2020 India is projected to have an additional fortyseven million workers, almost equal to the total world shortfall. The average Indian would be only twenty-nine years old, compared with the average age of thirty-seven in China and United States, fortyfive in Western Europe and fortyeight in Japan.
Over the next decade, job growth in India – one million new jobs every year – is going to be far lower than what we need, considering the fourteen million people who will enter the workforce every year.”

1. In the times ahead it is on cards that more and more such actions ( which are within the sovereign powers of the countries ) and within a country ( which are not legal ) would be imposed by countries and Indian States. The ramifications of the actions would get complicated. There would be both pro and con arguments. Arguments, however justified some of them may be, would not alter what is bound to happen. To understand what is going to happen and getting prepared for the impending phenomenon would be a more pragmatic response.
2. Till the eighties, migration of Indians to other countries was sporadic. Then the number surged. And all indications are that the number would go on increasing in the years ahead, with the increase in the number of qualified personnel in India, shortage of such people in some countries influencing corporate sector in such countries persuading their governments to allow such migration. One would have to wait and watch how other countries, i.e., both Governments and people, would respond to such a development.
3. Countries till recent times decided the level of immigration from other countries on the basis of various pulls and pressures. But probably it is the first time that any Government, as USA did, had stipulated that companies are expected to show positive discrimination in giving employment to Americans vis-à-vis people from other countries. Within India, migration of low income people from one State to another is on the increase. This would get further momentum. While some States perceive that this is bound to happen because of shortage of ‘nil’ skilled/ semi skilled people from their own flock, some States, particularly political parties, do not view this development with equanimity. In fact some of the political parties would capitalize on this issue because it has direct link to local vote bank.
4. The number of Indians going abroad for jobs has been continuously increasing during the last four or five decades. The largest contingent was low skilled workers to Gulf States, followed by of nurses. In both cases a high percentage was from Kerala. In the recent times migration of IT literates has also been on the increase. Yet another point to be noted is that, apart from the migration to Gulf countries, over 80% of the migration is to USA and UK.
5. In the times to come Western countries are going to face a Hobson’s choice. For various reasons the Governments there would like to stem the tide but at the same time from availability and cost effective angles, those countries have no other option but to grudgingly allow inflow of large of number of people from other countries. That a large number of Indians have been going abroad in the past for long duration stay ( often leading to marriage and permanent settlement in those countries ), the number of Indians having English writing and communicating skills, IT literacy, many Indians having relatives in those countries, going abroad for work becoming part of Indian culture, better emoluments, etc, are factors which predict such exodus. Yes, many other developing countries are following the footsteps of India in this area but non Indians reaching competitive edge vis-a-vis Indians is not in the immediate horizon.
6. It is assessed that most of the Western countries would face in the days ahead serious shortage of nurses. The statistics given out on this subject has given boost to setting up of large number of Nursing schools/colleges in India in the recent past.
7. At present the area of concern is about the migrants to Gulf States. The economic slowdown which world is facing, and Gulf States are not immune to the shock of the same, is leading to retrenchment of workers there ( mostly Keralites ) forcing them to come back to Kerala. On the one hand these people have got accustomed to higher income ( in Indian rupee terms ) while on the other there are no jobs waiting form them back home. A large percentage of them are unskilled or semi-skilled. But given the fact mentioned above about the low skills of those who are returning, it would be a terrifying prospect for such people to look for manual jobs in Kerala because jobs are rare and further the income would be much small compared to what they were getting in rupee terms. Inevitably it would become a social problem.
8. In the times to come, the phenomenon mentioned in the point above, could be repeated in the case of people from India of other vocations also, i.e., their being forced by Governments of various countries to return to India permanently.
9. So far the number of non-Indians coming to India for work has been very low in number. This position is likely to continue in the near future. But not necessarily in the long term. If Bangladeshi workers can come to India for work, then could not the same be followed up by people of other vocations coming to India. Over three or four decades back a large number of Tamils came to India from Sri Lanka and they were settled in Tamil Nadu tea plantations by the Tamil Nadu Government. It cannot be ruled out that once Sri Lankan Governments takes over areas which in the past had been virtually ruled by Sri Lankan Tamils, many Tamils would come to India, more so as they are confident of a helping hand by the Tamil Nadu Government.
10. In respect of the second point, i.e., migration of Indian people from one State to another in search of jobs, the following points may be noted:
· The requirement for servants in Delhi and other cities and towns has grown up tremendously during the last two or three decades because of (1) higher income of middle class people and hence affordability to retain servant, (2) the phenomenon of both husband and working, and (3) slow withering of the concept of joint family. Earlier, a large percentage of maid servants used to be Tamils. But with rapid industrialization of Tamil Nadu and spread effect of the prosperity on a large number of people, this migration is dying up. UPites and Biharis constitute largest number of servants in cities, with recent phenomenon of Bangladeshis coming and taking such jobs ( many of whom change their names from Muslim to Hindu, since Muslims have difficulty to get jobs of servants in Hindu households). Here also shortages are being felt mainly because of increasing construction activities in cities, where such unskilled people could get jobs with better wages and due to the fact that generally house-maid job is the last preference.
· In Kerala during the last few decades, shortage of Malayali house-workers has been continuously going up. Then this shortage started filling up by but because of the development mentioned above, i.e., fast industrialization of Tamil Nadu, this source is drying up, which is being filled in by Oriyas followed by Biharis ( for the first time I noticed that some of the buses plying in Kerala have Hindi sign-boards for the benefit of these migrants ).
· It can be safely predicted that servant shortage in Kerala would spread to towns and even villages, with the attendant demand for higher wages ( which is a good development as wages of servants in India for decades and centuries have been very low).
· Despite Mumbai experience, more and more Biharis/UPites/Oriyas would migrate to cities and towns in search of jobs, because making such a venture will not be taken as a risk prone activity, similar to large scale migration of Keralites to Gulf countries.

Issues which are likely to prop up

1. Migrant work-force tend to bring down the existing emoluments or atleast put a check to any strong move by local workers for increasing emoluments. While employers may profit from such a development, the same would result in creation of ill-will on the part of local workers against migrants.
2. Too many migrants in a small area may upset the social mores of the place.
3. Local people may turn against migrants, as happened recently in Mumbai.
4. Many a Government would tighten their entry visas.
5. Many a Government would face Hobson’s choice: shortage of skilled people and hence the need to allow such people to come from other countries and at the same time societies / political parties opposing such a development.
6. While Indians have generally accepted, and that too gladly, large scale migration of Indians to other countries, how would they react to large scale immigration of people of other countries to India.
7. While there was alround condemnation of violence against Bihari/Upite migrants in Mumbai recently, the fact that the agitation has been perceived by many Maharashtrians as protecting their interests leading to increase in the number of followers for Raj Thackeray’s party, would not be lost sight of by other political parties and hence some of the parties capitalizing similar situations in other places in the future cannot be ruled out.
8. Migration of large number of people from on State to others would lead to better understanding of other cultures and to the extent of people in the host State take an approach of ‘ live and let live,’ the same would be good for the country.
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